Big Waters This Weekend

[rfolster]

When considering a camping trip this weekend, a few of us realized that the ocean is going to be very active this weekend, with swells in Maine about 5-6' at around 15-17 seconds, and some wind waves on top to boot. Does anyone have the experience to know if this is a complete no-go weekend, or are there some areas along the NE coast that a group can go work on skills-in-conditions. Safety is the biggest concern, and I am opting for a look-see from shore rather than needing a ride from the CG.

[NateHanson]

Things look fairly manageable up here for the weekend. Some moderate swell, but that will be felt most on southern ends of the most exposed islands. So someplace like the south end of Isle au Haut, or Thread of Life off Boothbay, would have some fairly big stuff happening. But any area like Stonington, or Casco Bay, or Frenchman Bay, etc etc etc, where lots of islands break up that big open-ocean swell before it reaches you, should have plenty of areas with good protection. Suitable for folks with 3*/4* sorts of skills, anyways. Of course, what is safe all depends on the paddlers.

[EEL]

I'm sure Nate has it right since it is his backyard. Personally, I focus on wind more than anything else when looking at a marine forecast.

Here are some points which may or may not be useful, but it is how I look at forecasts for the Maine coast. Check the

Gray and Caribou forecasting offices for the maps showing the forecast areas so you get a feel for what area the forecasts cover. Note that the Casco Bay forecast area is for more than what many think of as Casco Bay and that forecast will often call for conditions well beyond what you will encounter on a trip to say Bangs or Whaleboat or even Jewell. The Intercoastal forecast from Caribou and the Penobscot Bay forecast will give you better reads on conditions around Stonington and parts of MDI than the coastal forecast. Unless you are visiting islands a few miles off shore, I pay attention to the land forecast as well. However, "Some days you eat the bear, and some days the bear eats you".

Ed Lawson

[NateHanson]

Yes, like Ed says, wind is almost always more of a factor for kayaking up here than the height of the seas. Seas mostly are a factor if you're planning to rock garden or surf, and for finding safe, suitable landings. Otherwise, swell just goes up and down.

Ed also makes a good point about "Coastal" vs. "Intracoastal" forecasts. The "Intracoastal" forecast for the MDI, and Penobscot Bay areas encompasses everything all the way out to the tip of Schoodic Peninsula to the East, and Port Clyde to the West. So when you see seas 4-6 feet, that's what you might encounter 10-15 miles south of Stonington, or out near Monhegan Island. Even though that forecast also covers Mount Desert Narrows, you'll not likely see even a fraction of that forecast in much of the forecast area.

Not that I want to give the impression that folks should discount the forecast and just go regardless. Rather, paddlers should learn to integrate the forecast in their trip-planning process, and make some predictions about what the local conditions will be in certain areas, given the zone forecast for that day. The forecast usually doesn't have a go/no-go threshhold, as much as it informs my decision of where to paddle. On a 20 knot day, I might still go out, but it could be a good day to explore that winding estuary I've been wondering about for a while.

Nate

[rfolster]

Thank you for your input Nate and Ed.

Suitable for folks with 3*/4* sorts of skills, anyways. Of course, what is safe all depends on the paddlers.

You are absolutely correct about that!! The trick is to deterime if the conditions are Level 3 or Level 4. I think that all parameters are within the Level 3 category except for the swells - hense the curiosity.

Yes, like Ed says, wind is almost always more of a factor for kayaking up here than the height of the seas. Seas mostly are a factor if you're planning to rock garden or surf, and for finding safe, suitable landings. Otherwise, swell just goes up and down.

I apologize to those who can get seasick, but I LOVE riding large swells and waves! I think the wind will play a factor - at leat maybe on Sunday. Winds over 10k might turn out of the West on Sunday with swells out of the SSE or something like that. My understanding is that cross winds on typical swells usually make for "confused" waters. Is this compounded for larger swells or does the wind have less of an effect on water with "more energy"? My guess is that you just end up with confused waters on top of big swells, which just makes me dizzy to think about.

Is anyone familiar with the concept of Primary Swells and Secondary Swells? One of the forcasts that I have been looking at uses both along with Wind Waves to calculate the overall state of the seas. I understand that waves are generated from local winds and swells are from distant winds (long fetch over time, etc.) but what are Primary and Secondary swells?

[EEL]

Rob:

What forecast are you looking at that uses the terms primary and seondary swell? Sounds like a surf thing when swells are coming from differnt directions.

As an aside, I'm not sure NSPN levels and BCU * award numbers are equivalent. I suspect when Nate speaks of 3/4* paddlers and skills he has in mind a whole set of skills and experiences which may not translate well into what the typical NSPN paddler would describe as a L3 or L4 situtation. Part of the peril with the whole trip level thing, but I digress.

Ed Lawson

[Doug]

Ill be playing in the surf Saturday at Jenness Beach and don't expect anything large. Good day to play around rather than rack up the miles.

[djlewis]

Here are two place to look for fairly detailed conditions forecasts, taking landforms, distance from shore, etc into account, things you don't get from the big swaths reported in NWS's usual marine forecasts. That's especially important in MA, given the major swell shadowing effect from the Cape, which fools a lot of people into thinking the swell will be bigger than it is (depending on the direction, of course). That effect doesn't apply as much to the Maine coast, except for Penobscot Bay, plus of course the local estuaries and peninsulas. But you can definitely see the N-S differences.

NWS graphical (scale a bit small)

http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/maineMarineDay.php#tabs

Swellwatch, separate reports for N and S Maine coast

http://forecasts.surfingmagazine.com/#place=44.406316252661355_-67.752685546875_8_1879_height_none_Sat_-1

[NateHanson]

Thank you for your input Nate and Ed.

You are absolutely correct about that!! The trick is to deterime if the conditions are Level 3 or Level 4. I think that all parameters are within the Level 3 category except for the swells - hense the curiosity.

As Ed guessed, I was referring to BCU (or similar ACA) skill standards. Since I'm merely an interloper on the NSPN boards, and am not involved with the club itself, I don't know anything about your trip-level ratings.

(By the way, I do appreciate the useful conversations that occur here on NSPN, and I hope my occasional tagging along as an outsider-to-the-north is okay with everyone.)

[Suz]

Nate - you are always welcome to participante in both discussions and on the water.

Suz