WX Question for Huth

[EEL]

While getting in a later afternoon/twilight paddle today, I noticed what appeared to be Mare's Tails coming up from the south. Usually there is a some time between them and the clouds of the approaching front. today, the gap was very small and it almost seemed as if the front eventually tore them into smaller, scattered segments.

So I wondered if these features were indicators of the size, strength, and/or speed of the approaching system and could be used to predict what was coming.

Ed Lawson

[JohnHuth]

So I wondered if these features were indicators of the size, strength, and/or speed of the approaching system and could be used to predict what was coming.

Yup, I saw that, too. It was beautiful right at the sunset, as the clouds were all illuminated and were a continuous sheet of red. (note: good evidence that you can't trust "red sky at night, sailor's delight" as a weather adage)

It was/is the approaching tropical storm - as hurricanes dissapate, the remnants gather speed and move through quickly - BUT - it looks like an approaching low pressure system/warm front in terms of the clouds.

Generally, if signs move rapidly it means the change happens faster.

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Story:

During one of his later voyages, Columbus saw the signs of an incoming hurricane, and sought shelter in Hispanola. Because Columbus was on the "outs" with the Spanish governor, he refused to let Columbus hole up in the harbor. The Governor, also not believing Columbus, also continued with his plans to send out a large fleet to sail to Spain. According to the story, Columbus tried to persuade the Governor not to send out the fleet, but couldn't persuade him.

Columbus quickly sailed to the lee side of the island, and found a decent hurricane hole and weathered the storm. The entire fleet was never heard from again.

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I don't personally have a lot of experience with hurricanes, but I've been told that the classic signs are what seems like a rapidly approaching low pressure system, and also large swells with a very long period (makes sense, huh?). Also, for rotating storms, you can figure out the relative center of the storm with respect to you, by the wind direction. Right now, the wind is out of the east, meaning the storm center is nearly due south of us - since the winds rotate counter clockwise around a hurricane (7:45 AM, Saturday, Nov. 3rd)

Check out the www.oceanweather.com - it has some nice plots of pressure contours and wind directions. Right now, it's particularly interesting because of this storm.

[Pintail]

Ed, With all due respect to the Professor, surely those weren't mares' tails (notice where the apostrophe goes -- plural) last evening? Cirrostratus, more like -- in the most beautiful striations, I concur. Mares' tails look really feathery -- of which there was no evidence when I left work. While I am certainly not a meteorologist or a teacher, I <have> spent what seems like half my life in the sky (sometimes avoiding some real cr*p...) By the way, you got it quite right: of course the speed at which the components of the front pass by, or their apparent compression, indicate the steepness/gradient of the millibars, etc, etc.

I loved the Columbus story, John!

[JohnHuth]

surely those weren't mares' tails (notice where the apostrophe goes -- plural) last evening? Cirrostratus, more like -- in the most beautiful striations, I concur.

What time did you leave work? I was out at a cross country meet, where my daughter was running. I remember it being pretty clear around 4 PM (this was in Newton), and I could see some high whispy cirrus (maybe not classic mares' tails, but definitely had the whispy structure) around 4:30-4:40 or so. Then, I looked up again, and ...whoa.... it was being over taken by cirrostratus - this was maybe 5 PM? Then, by sunset it was this huge sheet of red with little undulations in it. I remember thinking "that sucker's moving in fast..."

Anyway, it was quite spectacular. (I *think* it's mares' tails - apostrophe after the "s").

[JohnHuth]

Hey, Ed -

Quick addendum to this. Last week, I had dinner with an ex-grad student of mine. Her brother was there, and he's a blue-water sailor. He mainly captains boats for rich guys who can't sail, and spends a lot of time in hurricane alley in the Atlantic. Canaries, Cape Verde, runs to the Windward Islands, Antilles, etc. He's been doing this for 10 years.

We compared notes on all sorts of things - waves, weather, oncoming hurricanes, the accuracy of GPS'es. It was quite fun (well, for me, anyway).

One thing he noted was the sunrises and sunsets you get at a certain time on the approach of a hurricane - the whole sky gets painted red, he says that his hair stands on end when he sees one of these skies, because he always associates it with approaching hurricanes.

I remember when Noel was coming in, the sunset the day before had a huge sheet of red across it.

Nothing definitive or professorial....just two guys comparing notes.

[EEL]

the whole sky gets painted red, he says that his hair stands on end when he sees one of these skies, because he always associates it with approaching hurricanes.

Boy f you are few days out, I bet it does. Hard to imagine what it must hvae been like in the 16th Century sailing and have enough knowledge to know what was going to happen ad not enough technology to GOOD.

Missed the sky.

I realized I never responded to you question about SOFs and how tough they are. My limited experience is they are quite robust in the sense you can drop them with impunity, they will take being surged onto stuff better than FG, but obviously some type of impacts are going to cut or puncture the skin. I have had some impacts with rocks which have scratched the coating for over a foot, but no real harm that would have caused a major gelcoat scratch. Routine landing, etc cause no problems. Still, I would not go rock gardening with one. But I would not hesitate to paddle out to Jewell or Seguin in it either.

Ed Lawson