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John Huth Presents - Weather By The Seat Of Your Pants


rfolster

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John Huth once again has volunteered his time to present a workshop for NSPN members to understand weather and how these apply to sea kayaking. John is a long time NSPN member, and has a unique set of qualifications to present on this subject as he is both a physics professor/lecturer at Harvard University and an accomplished kayaker. His experiences on the sea have stimulated him to focus some of his academic research on kayak-related aspects of the physical world, and he recently published a book on primitive navigation entitled "The Lost Art of Finding Our Way.” 

Johns past weather courses have broadly covered weather topics such as: the approach of warm and cold fronts, how to read cloud formations, wind, the air circulation around high and low pressure systems, and how to evaluate weather signs. Members have come away from past workshops with a heightened understanding and appreciation of the physical forces that affect us while on the water.

This is a workshop you won't want to miss.  The session will run from 11:30am to 4:00pm and will consist of two parts with a half-hour break in between and an open Q&A at the end.  The address for REI can be found in this calendar posting, and the meeting room is in the right rear of the store. Doors open at 11:00am and the store closes at 6:00pm for those interested in picking up a few items.  We have reached maximum capacity and RSVPs are now closed.

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I have the same issue without any option to reschedule.   Per Terese's request is there any chance of recording and archiving on the NSPN site, much like if someone missed a given webinar the option exists to go back at a later date.  John's presentation are so highly regarded that they would also have value to not-yet club members who would then have the option of viewing them as a part of their own progression up the learning curve.   Notwithstanding copyright issues does it make sense to also consider a place on the site to catalog other videos, links to videos, articles etc by category say: strokes, safety, weather, navigation, kayak camping, leadership, skin-on-frame, gear, repair etc. etc.  It could be a distinct added value of club membership.  I know I've benefited by the many referrals and citations I've come across through the message board and while some could be found through the "search" function a designated place with some basic categories signals the continued value of learning within the club's DNA and ensures easy accessibility. 

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John is giving a shorter (1 hr?) presentation on this same topic at the AMC Annual Summit. Anyone can attend:

https://www.outdoors.org/annualsummit

Weather by the Seat of Your Pants John Huth 2:45 p.m. Saturday January 27th, 2018

Although we've become reliant on weather forecasts, there can often be dramatic effects that are quite local and sudden.  This is often the case in the mountains, but can also occur in coastal areas in the summer time.  Author and Harvard physics professor John Huth will illustrate ways of anticipating weather through observing cloud formations, wind directions and understanding something of the physical forces that shape the weather, we can often outdo the forecasts over short timescales.   Weather aphorisms like "mackerel scales and mares tails make lofty ships carry low sails" give catchy little phrases to predict the weather.
 

If anyone else is going, let's meet up for some of the sessions.

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  • 3 weeks later...

We have reached maximum capacity for today's workshop, so RSVPs have been closed.  We are happy to see such enthusiasm for this event and look forward to seeing everyone there.

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Hi, All - 

Thanks to all who attended, and thanks for great questions.   As I'd mentioned, I'm working this up to an online course, and I'm continually tweaking things, and questions give me great feedback.   If you have other useful feedback, I'd be delighted to get it. 

Here's a link to the talk and all the video files that I used - so it should be complete

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1FW5X-sgq2DUsoGeCUZWxW52X52-uytEj

 

If there's a problem accessing this, please let me know.  

Oh yes, thanks to the organizers!

John 

Edited by JohnHuth
Wrong link, whoops!
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1 hour ago, JohnHuth said:

 

Hi, All - 

Thanks to all who attended, and thanks for great questions.   As I'd mentioned, I'm working this up to an online course, and I'm continually tweaking things, and questions give me great feedback.   If you have other useful feedback, I'd be delighted to get it. 

Here's a link to the talk and all the video files that I used - so it should be complete

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1FW5X-sgq2DUsoGeCUZWxW52X52-uytEj

 

If there's a problem accessing this, please let me know.  

Oh yes, thanks to the organizers!

John 

Thanks, John.   As always, really good and informative talk.  As I said after, the one addition that would be helpful would be photos of sea states when crazy things happening are with the weather.  Of course if we're unlucky enough to get caught in these conditions, hard to take photos because it's two-hands-on-the-paddle paddling which makes photography...challenging.

Prudence

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I am so sorry to have missed it and hope that no one got bumped because of me !!!

Great to hear that it will become an online course. Looking forward to that.

Impressive weather videos including crazy people walking the beach under an advancing storm with lightning all over the place. I particularly like the Coriolis force-demonstration.

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Jim - 

You can use the powerpoint slides as a guide to when to see the videos.   

Pru - 

I'd be willing to be a collector of weather photos - people also need to describe where, when, where the camera is pointed, where the surface winds are blowing, and winds aloft

 

John

 

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This Swedish website suggests that with every every millibar of increase or decrease of barometric pressure, the sea level falls or rises respectively by 1 cm/millibar. That would suggest that the bomb cyclone that we had with Barometric pressure of 962 millibars, that there would have been a 50 cm (2 foot) rise in sea level. Then on top of that there would be the surges from the sheer force of the wind and the swell pushing water toward the shore. But a 2 foot rise is not insignificant. The eye of the low pressure that we're expected to have tomorrow seems like it will be off shore by 250 -300 miles to the southeast, where they may get pressures of 970 - 972. You would think that just that is going to generate waves on the sea, because it's sucking the normal sea level up by 40 cm, and then tomorrow's wind will supercharge that wave action. 

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Was just looking at information on the NOAA Boston observation station located deep in Boston Harbor at the Fort Point Channel entrance, and found the attached graphics showing the water level height difference from the predicted water heights (annual prediction without weather considerations) when connected with the drop in barometric pressure:

NOAA Boston Station 3-2-2018.pdf

The difference, if you can't read the screenshot, is almost 3' above prediction and increasing.  At first I thought that some of the height difference could be due to storm surge, but that is typically defined as the water raised from a low pressure system being pushed towards a shoreline.  That would be true of a storm already existing over the ocean coming to land (typical of storms approaching NE from the south along the coast):

image.png

However, this storm is entering the coastal waters from land, so I wonder if it is purely a storm tide phenomenon (where a high tide is increased by the lifting factors of a low pressure system).   Just some speculation on my part.  There is some good information about storm tides and storm surges at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Hi, All - 

One quick update.   I'm working on an online course on weather, based loosely around the presentation I made up in Reading.   I am putting together a blurb on the different units of pressure and I wanted to make one clarification - based on a question I received - and hopefully will clarify here. 

The of unit of pressure used most commonly now is the hecto-Pascal, where a Pascal is force per unit area in MKS (meter-kilogram-second) system - which would be Newtons (force) per square meter.  The prefix 'hecto' means 100.   The average sea level pressure is 1013 hectoPascals (hPa).    Why the odd units?   It has to do with the use of 'millibar' historically, and that the value of hPa was quite close to one millibar. 

Presently, however,  a millibar is *defined* to be hPa.   There was a time, however, when the average sea level pressure was the definition of one bar, and 1000 millibars would be average sea level pressure.   Over time, the definition changed to just make hPa and mb identical.  This happened roughly in the 1980's, and as far as I can tell is the rationale for adopting hPa, as opposed to some unit involving Pascals (kiloPascals, for example).

Old barometers that report pressures in millibars would have to have a correction made of 1013/1000 to get into the currently used definition of millibars.   

Sorry that I didn't answer this better during the talk.  

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