djlewis

Any experience with and or opinions on the Outdoor Research Hydroseal Compression Stuff Sacks? For one, do they seal well enough not to require extra dry bagging in a hatch that will probably get wet? Thanks. --David.

>The NWS forecasts weather over very large regions. You may >have been caught in a local disturbance that was not >significant to their larger picture. S/SE winds in this area >are an idication of either a Low to the S or SW (common) or >a North/South oriented front (less likely) or a NE High >(least likely). But again, even these things are large in >scale and not local effects. Yes, certainly -- local variations. In this case, however, ex post facto observations and VHS weather channel monitoring revealed that there was indeed a storm that came up from Boston. In fact, my wife got caught out on the road in the metro area in a much worse downpour than we had on Casco. So I think this particular instance was a discontinuous second-most-likely forecast that came to pass over a large area, rather than a local variation. >Another, cheaper and available technique would be to watch >the sky. ... Yes, I know there are more things in heaven and earth than heretore dreamt in my philosophy. Thank you for the hints. >True enough, but the NWS would have provided a synopsis that >would indentify the dominant weather system that was in >control of the local weather for that day. So I guess my >recommendation would be to listen for the synopsis, hear >their actual forcast and adjust as neccessary during the day >based on actual real-time observations. Yes... good points all. I will starting watching the NWS synopses as well as the most-likely-guesses. Thanks. --David.

>A barometer can be a >great (if somewhat technically demanding) tool to forecast >weather when away from NWS services for an extended time. >Use of the NWS system (via radio, internet, TV) provides a >distinct advantage in speed, accuracy and convenience, so >few people take the time to learn how to use a barometer >well. As an avid consumer of NWS forecasts, I must say that there is at least one good reason the "do it yourself", or at least, to know what is going on behind the NWS projections. That's the problem that NWS forecasts are a best guess, and apart from rain variations, do not discuss discontinuous alternate scenarios, even when they have some significant non-zero cance of happening. Here is an illustration. A bunch of us were out on -- guess where -- Casco on October 12, with a NWS prediction for a sunny afternoon. As we ate lunch, the weather grew increasingly unsettled, until it became apparent that our predicted sunny day was not going to materialize. In fact, we were getting at least a mild nor'easter. We then confirmed that by noting -- surprise, surprise -- that the wind was coming from the NE rather than the predicted S/SE. I checked the weather history for Peaks when I got back (see below, from the wonderful wunderground.com) and it showed barometer drop all day (30.07 at 1 am, 29.93 at noon, 28.78 at 6 pm), and the wind shift from SSE to N-NE at 6:45 AM. Well, we didn't need a barometer to note the wind direction, but the combination certainly would have triggered at least suspicion of the official forecat even as we set out. What happened? I have not reconstructed the actual weather events of the day, but my guess is that some frontal system changed direction, and instead of going out to sea, strayed W and hit us in Casco... or something like that. Now, did the NWS say anything like "sunny in the afternoon with 5 kts from the S, but with a 20% chance of a mild noreaster with rain and 10-15 kts from the NE". Of course not! That would just confuse most people. (The only probabilistic reporting NWS ever does is the proverbial 40% chance of rain, which probably covers a multitude of possible events, but I suspect usually refers to continuous variations.) But the erratic front, or something like it, was most likely what really happened. The 20% (or whatever) chance of a noreaster depended on exactly where you were and how the storm decided to track north. So, the prediction for sun and S winds was based on the *most likely* scenario. In this case, however, there was a big discontinuity between the most likely event and the second most likely event. So, finally a conclusion. It seems to this sub-novice meterologist that we mariners should be aware of what's really going on so we can identify those variables and possibilities that just don't appear in the NWS best-guess forecasts. We need to be alert to signs that the NWS best-guess is not actually happening. Of course, it would helped a lot in this case just to note the wind direction, and even more to have had that barometer along. At the very least, we could have tuned into the weather channels on our VHFs, but with such a sunny prediction, who needed it?! I say this all with some personal trepidation since I really was trying to avoid upgrading my status from sub-novice meterologist to at least novice, already having more than enough in my life to keep me busy. But I'm now thinking I need to. Scott, what's that book you fall asleep to? Or Jed, what were those meterology primers that you waved at us in class? --David. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/wxStat...MEPEAKS1&type=3

>So even though this swinging >motion of about 3-5 feet each way was lower than the 16 foot >variability, the unit could still pick it up. You'd think (even hope) that they'd use a smoothing function for calculating distance. Even better (or worse, depending on how geeky you are) the smoothing parameters could be set by the user, something like: how small a back-and-forth variation should be ignored when figuring distance? There's an easy way to test this. Stand still and swing the gps unit back and forth on a tether, or around your head, or toss it up and catch it for a few minutes, and see if it registers any distance. If not, then increase the arc, or walk back and forth a couple of feet, climb up and down stairs, etc etc, until it starts to register. That will tell you its sensitivity. --David.

I found this in several places around the net, though not at NWS/NOAA. This one seems the best, with a table format and some additional "general statements", which I've repeated here in case this link ever goes away. http://www.weatherwagon.com/pressureforecast.htm The text below is paraphrased from the National Weather Service Here are some general statements of wind-barometer readings that are generally true in the United States. "When the wind out of the south and southeast and the barometer falls steadily, a storm is approaching from the west or northwest, and its center will pass near or north of the observer within 12 to 24 hours, with wind shifting to the northwest by way of south and southwest. "When the wind sets in from points between east and northeast and the barometer falls steadily, a storm is approaching from the south or southwest, and its center will pass near or to the south of the observer within 12 to 24 hours, with winds shifting to northwest by way of north. The rapidity of the storm's approach and its intensity will be indicated by the rate and amount of the fall in the barometer. "As a rule, winds from the east and falling barometric pressure indicate foul weather, and winds shifting to the west quadrants indicate clearing and fair weather, but again there are exceptions and in some parts of the country these rules do not apply."

> This is a matter of degrees (no pun intended). Weather can >be very dangerous on a large lake with violent weather >looming just beyond the steep mountains to the west. If fact >the weather is easier to see on the ocean so on lakes is >where you may want to hone your sky reading skills. Good point. >Also note with regard to barometric pressure and weather: It >is not the absolute value of the pressure that is of >importance but rather the direction and rate of change. Which is why it still works fine for kayakers anywhere. No matter what altitude they start at, paddlers, unlike hikers, will simply not be ~changing~ altitude during a trip anywhere near enough to complicate relative barometer reading of the weather. --David.

From Evans, _Sea Kayaking Coastal Massachusetts_, p. 75. > Use tide tables for Portland. High tide at Plum Island Sound is 12 minutes later, low tide is 37 minutes later. Mean tidal range is around 8 feet. Avoid paddling at low tide due to extensive mud flats. Fox creek is passable two hours on either side of high tide.

Luckily for us sea kayakers, we do the vast majority of our paddling at sea level. I guess we could be on a mountain lake, or a descending river, or going through locks, but in those cases, predicting storms is not as vital as when on the bounding main. So, if I understand this business correctly, an altimiter/barometer makes a terrific barometer for us, because altitude is held constant, so changes in barometric pressure can only be meterological. And that's what I'm looking for. Gee, that reminds me... when I started this *!@$#$!*&%$##@!! so-called sport, I figured to simultaneously continue hiking the Whites and other places. Guess what... --David.

Hi, Rick: This ~is~ neat. Is it for real? Or more politely, how accurate is it? The NWS is certainly in a better position to test its accuracy than we are, so I'm not sure what to make of the injunction to "modify the table in accordance with his or her own observations". Can you send me the actual pointer or URL for the source at NWS. Yes, from the neck up... Thanks. --David.

I'm moving this to a separate thread, since I took it pretty far off topic -- my apologies for that. ----------------------------------------- Dan Lacey wrote: > I recently got a Timex Helix from Campmor. The battery quit >in 2 months,the altimeter is reliable within a couple of >hundred feet,if you can ever get it to recalibrate! The >temperature function is useless as long as you wear it. But >it did keep accurate time(till it quit) OK, thanks for the warning on this item. >I carry a carabiner watch on my PFD now,and a small clip on >compass with thermometer. Gee,I really haven't missed the >altimeter while kayaking! As I understand things, an altimeter is, perforce, a barometer. It depends on which variable you assume is varying and which is constant. For an altimeter function, you need to assume constant barometric pressure, and vice versa. For us sea kayakers, we are usually pretty close to seal level, right, so altitude is obviously constant. Therefore, an altimeter actually makes a great barometer. What confuses me is how you can use a barometer/altimeter as a reliable altimeter when the weather is changing. At low altitude, the pressure changes with altitude by roughly 1.0" mercury for every 1000 feet. That's a perfectly likely change in pressure with a storm approaching. So, if your altimeter tells you you just climbed 1000 feet higher, how do you know a significant portion of that wasn't actually a meterological drop in pressure, and you only climbed, say, 750 feet. For example, on Peaks Island on Sunday, the atmospheric pressure changed from 29.9 to 29.5 between 11:00 AM and 8:00 PM, when we know from RickS's report, that weather in Casco Bay was deteriorating. (http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KMEPEAKS1&day=27&year=2003&month=10) If I'd been climbing a mountain under those conditions, my altimeter would have been off by 500 feet over that 9 hour period. Hmmm... maybe that's within tolerance for a hiker who's interested in the altitude... they are probably climbing and descending a lot faster than that. Besides, they can improve their accuracy by ~looking~ at the weather and factoring in likely baromteric changes. OK, maybe I answered my own question. Does this make sense? --David.

>Does that LED light float? Doubtful... it's a dense little bugger. But it's got a hole for a tether. Maybe the compass and light can go on the same line. I saw those combos too, but opted for a straight compass. Unfortunately, it also has a basically functionless plastic base that makes it much larger than necessary, though still quite small. What I'm waiting for is a tiny barometer/thermometer. I'm impresssed how well you can foretell weather deterioration heading your way with one. Is it possible, from a technical standpoint? The smallest thing that Campmor has is a $60 watch with a barometer/altimiter. http://www.campmor.com/webapp/commerce/com...rrfnbr=27738482 --David.

>David bought a small compass for his PFD. I hope it glows in the dark. OK, I'll add one of those little high-intensity, LED flashlights, especially if I figure to be out anywhere near dark. Nope, It'll always be there... lots of good uses for it. I wonder how well it shows up in the fog, as a signalling device, or even in clear air. Of course, I always have my triple-LED headlamp at least in a hatch, even at 9:00 AM. But I presume we are talking about situations where that does not help. http://www.campmor.com/webapp/commerce/com...rrfnbr=26634962 http://www.campmor.com/images/lights/29657.jpg --David.

... is not exactly how we (five NSPN paddlers on Saturday 10/25) judged the paddle north from Scituate towards Cohasset. It's a stretch of steep, pebbly beaches overlooked by rows of middle-class beach houses cheek-to-cheek, though some fancy enough to warrant their own ten-acre plot were they in Cohasset or Gloucester. Looking closely, we decided that there were probably real beaches hiding there, with sand and surf, just not at high tide. A forlorn trio of teen-age board surfers stood atop a rocky dune line casting longing looks down on the small waves breaking directly on the steep shore and nowhere else. We thought of landing, just to say we did, but did not fancy getting washed by the next wave back down the pebbly slope. Then, as we passed Minot Beach, the character changed to... yes... rocky shoreline, bluffs, trees, islets, ledges, rock gardens on and offshore. This is what they meant! Suddenly Leslie perked up and charged ahead. We called to her, and she yelled back that she was going home... to her family's land. Indeed she was. We pulled behind her into a little gem of a crescent beach guarded by rocky outcrops and just flat enough to make landing feasible for gel-coated boats not on a BCU 5 training mission. As the rest of us pulled our boats up the pebbly shore, Leslie was already out of hers and scrambling up the 20-foot rock bluff. We looked up and she beckoned to us from the top... here's where we eat lunch! And so we did, with our own private view of the open ocean under a clear sky, over a sparkling little stretch of Maine in Massachusetts. After lunch, we toured the property on foot. Across a small, barely paved one-lane road and dense woods -- we're NSPN; come bushwhack with us -- lay an open view of the Cohasset marshes, the Glades. Hmmm... can we launch from here right into the harbor, at high tide of course? Hmmm... I'm not sure we can get out through those twisty-turny passages, and if not, we'd have to reverse direction -- literally -- and portage through the brush back to the beach. Lets try it the other way, float in from the harbor on the tide, and if we can't make it, we can just go back to the harbor. Great idea... for another day... next year. But lets do it before the greenheads arrive; this looks like where they convene in the spring to plan and train for their summer attacks all over the northeast! Some returned to sun on the comfy rock, and others scrambled more around the Leslie's family 6.5 acres of woods and shoreline, complete with beautiful a rock cove, gardens and slots. Hey, we thought, here's the place for the southern clubhouse of NSPN, the North and South shore Paddler's Network. Maybe someday... Ready to paddle again, we did a quick planning and chart-reading exercise to convince ourselves that we could go out the mile-plus to Minot Light and back to Little Harbor in time to catch the full blast of the ebbing rip, and still get to Cohasset Harbor and our shuttle car by 4:00. And so we did. After a crossing with a bit of bounce to complement the morning shoreline hugging, we ooohed and aahed at the Light (why is it the I Love You Light?) and circumnavigated it, clockwise like good pilgrims. The heading from the chart and Nav-Aid (245°-250° mag) showed the way from the Light to Little Harbor with deadly accuracy -- though some doubted it as they scanned the shore for a sign of the hidden pond and tried to pull us every which way on the whim of the moment. Trust your compass! As we arrived, the Little Harbor rip was really ripping. This time it was Sing who sped ahead excitedly, to get in a dozen runs through the current and shelf, including a couple of rolls in quick succession in the standing waves -- showing off, of course! The rest of us were content with a few exhilirating runs or just watching. We headed back to Cohasset, and then by shuttle to Scituate to pick up the other cars. Gee, a ten-minute ride in a car covers roughly the same territory that we just spent a delicious day paddling and bushwhacking in the brilliant mid-autumn sun. Guess which one we'd rather be doing! --David.

I don't know about drift models, but as a result of that Cape incident, I bought a small compass at REI, and will carry it in my pfd at all times. Does that make sense? --David.

I agree... a generous offer and special opportunity. Thanks, Scott (and any unnamed troublemakers)! I'll be there. --David.

Yes, Brian... sorry. Definitely thanks to him too. Hope you get over your sinus problem quickly. I appreciate your contribution yesterday, even if it was all dry. --David.

Thanks, Rick, Scott, Keith, Jed (did I miss any instructors?), for a great day on -- and in -- the water and lots of terrific information and practice. I look forward to more. --David.

Sounds like the seals were on a kayak watching trip!

Jeff Casey said: >i'd love to be rescue bait for this... Hey, I think the idea this time is for the students to be the bait and you old-timers the fisherfolk! I'll be there... in my swim trunks and T-shirt. ;-))) --David.

Here's the most intelligent article I've seen yet, not only on what actually and, given the uncertainty, probably happened, but also what it means for kayakers and sea-farers in general. The lesson I draw -- other than general fog cautions and tactics -- is never to go out without a compass and a knowledge of which direction shore or other form of safety lies. In fact, one might do well to put a small compass in ones pfd, just in case. --David. http://www.capecodonline.com/cctimes/fishermensay15.htm

>Maine Harbors predicted a slack for East Chop at 3:03 pm. >But when we arrived around 2:30 pm the current had already turned >against us, consistent with the Eldridge prediction. Interesting. On Saturday, MapTech prdicted 2:45 PM slack in the Waquoit to Nantucket Sound channel, which is more or less opposite East Chop. We got there at precisely 2:45, and the flood current was running at around 1.5-2 kts, befitting an hour or more after slack. Could it have been a kind of surge effect from Isabel that raised tides and sped up flood currents -- does this kind of thing happen? Or is it just the imponderable nature of tidal currents in general? --David

Nine souls paddled out from Pavilion Beach at 10:15 AM in search of predicted 3-5 foot swells, surf and adventure in Ipswich Bay. We ferried the incoming current to the tip of Plum Island, with many tantalizing surf lines visible out in the bay. Adventure proved elusive at first, however. As we chased each break, it seemed to recede or disappear, sometimes providing a small ride in as many as three directions at once, but more often leaving us scratching our heads swearing it was right here five minutes ago. Well anyway, we were out paddling on an increasingly beautiful day, and that's what counted. It was great just to be bouncing around. Finally, noting that the distant break lines off of Plum Island seemed more enduring, we headed up the coast. Once again the breaks seems to recede north as we chased them, but finally we caught up with some decent, though limited surf... and rocks too. Gingerly working around the rocks, several of us got good bongo rides onto the beach, while others cruised back and forth practicing braces or just enjoying the conditions. What is it about a kayak that makes it fun to get several tons of roiling salt water smack in the face? We landed on the allowed southernmost beach of Plum Island, with Al getting the best ride so far. After lunch we enjoyed some familiar fresh pineapple and Suzanne's yummy coffee cake. Lucky she didn't instead make that chocolate cake with gooey icing, since the pan spent time upside down! As we looked out on the beach, we noted to our delight that some nice, spilling surf had formed while we dined, and there was plenty of it away from the rocks. OK, let's go! For another hour we surfed, took more facefuls of soup, braced, launched in surf, combat rolled and bounced around a lot more. Though it was only 3:00, three of us had to go. So the other six decided on a quiet end to an exciting day with a paddle up Plum Island Sound to the yacht club, against the ebb, and then turned around to fly with the current back to Pavilion. As we packed up, Jim Fessenden pulled onto the beach, slightly weary from a solo circumnav of Plum Island. It seems there are many ways to have a good time in a kayak on a gorgeous September day. Only three of us stuck it out for a PPPO in Ipswich, but it was a beaut. First we stumbled into the posh dining room for Zabaglione's Italian Restaurant, eyeing the elegant linen, table settings and wine bar, while they warily noted our t-shirts and shorts smelling of surf and sandals dripping sand. Ummm, we are closed right now, and besides we are full up with reservations. But not to worry -- try our cafe around the corner; same kitchen. Perfect. There ensued three orders and three home runs, followed by three forks with a voluptuous four-layer chocolate mousse cake with a strawberry and whipped cream on top. Unfortunately no cameras were present. As Peter plied the giggling waitress with compliments, we decided this is forevermore ~the~ place for PPPO in Ipswich. Christopher, why didn't you tell us?! Say, is there a spot for information like this on the NSPN web site?

Six energetic NSPNers (Richard Najarian, Shane "curious shark" Smith, Mike Ravicz, Marc Schlosser, David Lewis, Cathy Foley) plus two in-spirit NSPNers (Deb Dempesey, who had a last-minute personal crisis; Marjorie Woodwell, who was on long-scheduled vacation) plus two friends of Mike (Ann and Donna), plus two Tufts Sailors showed up on a chilly Saturday morning May 3 to render the foul banks of the Mystic fair once more. After downing some dounts (donated by Dunkin Donuts) and liquids, we fanned out to some of the foulest spots on the shoreline to collect bottles, cups, diapers, and assorted other trash dating back to the Dukakis administration. As the bags by the roadside began to bulge, the eyes of our friendly MDC guides bulged too, and by the time we were done we were all offered permanent jobs cleaning the urban waterways of Boston! Apparently we had gathered far more trash than a group twice our size working down at Alewife! Some credit undoubtedly goes to the density of trash in our chosen area, but apparently kayaking fits one well for collecting junk. We politely declined the job offers, though some of us need one, but promised to do it again on a regular basis, since our group, efficient though it was, was not large enough to cover the goal of the whole eastern shoreline of Upper Mystic Lake. The MDC folks collected the pokers, rakes and unused bags and rode off with a truckload of our foul fruit. Afterwards, six of us in various configurations and boats (including a tandem canoe) paddled down the River to the 7th Annual Mystic Watershed Herring Run Festival, where most of the runners wore sneakers rather than fins. We then returned and rode off ourselves, happy in our public service. Check out the pictures (not edited or culled much) at http://www.triadic.com/Mystic2003/pictures.htm . --David.