jdkilroy Posted January 19, 2009 Share Posted January 19, 2009 1400: We put in at Goat Island and although still snowing heavily at times, there seemed to be little wind in stark contrast to the 20 ~ 25 kts predicted. Temps in the low 20's we were wanting to get Laura a chance to paddle the borrowed Avocet LV to adjust fit if needed before loading it up for the trip to So Carolina. Headed for the breakwater at the mouth of Little Harbor and as we cleared the bridge by the Wentworth, you could hear the steady pounding of the surf. The snow was steady and we had the wind at our backs. Approaching the breakwater, the gentle rollers were pretty fair sized but it wasn't until Laura disappeared behind one that I realized they must be quite a bit larger outside. We ventured outside for a bit of play and headed back in. The wind and snow in our teeth from the NW x N, again in contrast to the SE winds predicted. Stopped in for a cold one at Flatbreads and headed home. http://s311.photobucket.com/albums/kk467/j...roy/Snow%20Day/ Jon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdkilroy Posted January 19, 2009 Author Share Posted January 19, 2009 As an addendum: I am struck by how often the marine wx reports/predictions fail to correlate with actual conditions. Grossly; using the synopsis for the general wx trend is sound but if you are looking for more local/regional detail, it seems pretty hit or miss. From what I can see, this condition may worsen as projects to make this information more accurate are withering due to loss of funding; think GMOOS. Jon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cathyfoley Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 As an addendum: I am struck by how often the marine wx reports/predictions fail to correlate with actual conditions. Grossly; using the synopsis for the general wx trend is sound but if you are looking for more local/regional detail, it seems pretty hit or miss. From what I can see, this condition may worsen as projects to make this information more accurate are withering due to loss of funding; think GMOOS. Jon I should have paddled with you guys...I was so bored Sunday afternoon. I took the dogs for a walk at Jenness Beach. The surf was very angry and fairly big. From North Hampton beach to Jenness the swell and breakers were really big. I thought for sure no one went out! Good for you guys. I walked the dogs at North Hampton today and it was perfect conditions for surfing long boats....nice swell that didn't break until about 50 yerds from shore. Unfortunately, I had to work all afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EEL Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 As an addendum: I am struck by how often the marine wx reports/predictions fail to correlate with actual conditions. Grossly; using the synopsis for the general wx trend is sound but if you are looking for more local/regional detail, it seems pretty hit or miss. I often come away from paddles thinking this way too. I am also certain that once again paddling into the teeth of a wind when temps are in the 20 was no fun and reason to curse NOAA. I blame John Huth for my comments since it was his NSPN weather presentations that has caused me to study and think about this stuff. Just to provide some things to consider for future reference. 1. The marine forecast is a conservative projection of what conditions are likely to be encountered somewhere for some time in the forecast zone during the forecast period. The forecast zone is large and extends 25 miles out. One big factor is the difference between weather near shore and weather out 25 miles. 2. The odds of encountering the predicted conditions in the tiny area of a typical day paddle along the coast depend on many things, but generally it is unlikely. 3. The forecast is really a best guess of how a rather dynamic system will perform after reviewing the projections of at least two different computer models. NOAA is really rather good at it all things considered when viewed in the right scale. 4. If you look at the buoy data for Sunday, I believe you will find the observed conditions were consistent with the forecast in that the winds were from the SE till around noon which generated relatively large, short period seas so for a mariner, the forecast was spot on. By the afternoon the winds had clocked around to NW. Perhaps the low moved out faster or was farther out so impact of the high was felt earlier. In any event the land forecast and observations were for NW wind all day which would likely extend over the coast. 5. If you go to the Weatherunderground site and look at the advanced forecasts on the right side, at the bottom you will see a link that says "scientific discussion". This shows what the forecasters are thinking and why and is often very informative. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.as...Name=Portsmouth 6. I find it helpful to print or write down the land and marine forecast and record the actual conditions for future reference. Logs are good things even for kayakers. 7. I don't have this skill, but I believe kayakers who are very good at predicting conditions tend to look at info on large weather systems, observe local conditions, and reach conclusions by applying knowledge of how large systems impact local weather and the experience of what observed conditions tend to mean in the future. 8. RE: Point 7. Whenever you get a chance to attend a weather related presentation or pick the brains of people like John Huth or John Carmody about the weather; do so. Ed Lawson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djlewis Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 ...I am also certain that once again paddling into the teeth of a wind when temps are in the 20 was no fun and reason to curse NOAA... I blame John Huth for my comments since it was his NSPN weather presentations that has caused me to study and think about this stuff. 1.2.3.4.5.6.7... For those too lazy to follow a buncha points or study to the extent that NOAA and John Huth have, look at this... http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/secto...ineDay.php#tabs This site is especially good for showing the shadowing effects of topographical features (like the Cape) on waves and, to some extent, wind... something that many paddlers neglect when reading a NOAA forecast for waters out to 25 or 40 nm. Of course, today's forecasts are really only reasonably good for today. After that their accuracy decreases rapidly, especially for detailed localities. So, for multi-day expeditions, you really do need to develop your own weather smarts (or stay within range of the mobile web!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterB Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 As an addendum: I am struck by how often the marine wx reports/predictions fail to correlate with actual conditions. Grossly; using the synopsis for the general wx trend is sound but if you are looking for more local/regional detail, it seems pretty hit or miss. From what I can see, this condition may worsen as projects to make this information more accurate are withering due to loss of funding; think GMOOS. Jon The way it was explained to me (Andy Stamp) : marine weather forecasts are quite accurate in and of themselves ; however, if you look at the weather forecast as a transparency that has been placed on top of a map of a region; that transparency can slide one way or the other, so the weather conditions can reach an area late, early, pass to one side or the other of it, or (perhaps rarely) miss the area entirely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdkilroy Posted January 20, 2009 Author Share Posted January 20, 2009 ... and reason to curse NOAA. Ed Lawson Hi Ed, I don't ever curse NOAA. I have relied on NOAA's various services for too long. I simply find that, in general, their local wx predictions are unreliable at best. This has to be, at least in part, due to fewer and fewer weather monitoring stations/bouys etc. Information out can only be as good as information in; both amount and quality. The big picture is always the most important and to me that entails the synopsis combined with noting the "glass" and it's trend and actually looking at the sky. What's up there for clouds? where are they coming from relative to surface winds etc. Jon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EEL Posted January 20, 2009 Share Posted January 20, 2009 I don't ever curse NOAA. Jon: You are a better man than I. BTW, I really enjoyed the pictures. Especially those with snow encrusted foredeck. Ed Lawson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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