The weather sure looked marginal for Sunday's planned trip from the Greasy Pole to Magnolia. If you just looked at the radar 90 minutes before launch you would lock yourself in the basement: strong line of storms to west. Look at the icon on weather.com and you could expect rain and thunderstorms and some sun. However, more specific reports, listening to multiple TV weather reports, and putting the radar in motion suggested the storms were tracking northeast and would miss us, rain would end 30 minutes after launch, and thunderstorms would be around dinner.

It was better than that. There were just a few drops of rain for a few of us on the drive to the launch. The clouds dissipated by launch. Filtered sunlight, cool air, warm water and a helpful tide pushed Karen, Tom, Ern, Kevin, and Al to Magnolia Harbor in a hour, even with some paddlers playing along the shore A short stop at Kettle Cove and then some surfing in small waves further down. Al strategically did a half-roll near the shore to cool off rather than paddling out of the wave.

A pleasant trip back outside Kettle Island brought us for a stylishly late lunch at 10-pound Island 5 minute from the take out. Three of us hit the road at 3 PM to make other appointments while 2 continue sun bathing.

A very fun, very CAM trip. We seemed to have three different plans for each minor decision, but we never got very far before we selected one.

Thanks for the great time and flexibility everyone.

Well, Cathy and I are glad to see you guys enjoyed yourselves, even though we were hoping for vindication of our decission not to go. This is a tricky time of year where the storms are hit or miss, and you guys really got a hit! Great job, and we will join you next time.

...putting the radar in motion suggested the storms were tracking northeast and would miss us, rain would end 30 minutes after launch, and thunderstorms would be around dinner.

Dynamite! Putting the radar in motion can give some remarkably accurate of storm and rain -- and lack thereof.

I wish that somebody would wrap a good web app around the radar with time marking and projections. It's kind of a nuisance with the raw animated image -- but it still works pretty well in the end.

I wish I was as confident that the weather would work out as it appears. On the drive out I was thinking we might might do 6 loops to the Dog Bar if the skies opened up and the waves were large outside the harbor.

I forgot to mention that Kevin's smart phone sure helped when we got to the put in and when we stopped down the coast. He confirmed the front was still moving NE and not towards us. Now, if they would just make a waterproof, combo VHF Radio/Smart Phone for $25 with a monthly fee of $6 and guaranteed reception everywhere...

Yeah, some fun mini-surfing that day. Too bad it cost me my VHF....

Karen fell asleep on Ten Pound, but I didn't let her crisp up too much.

See ya soon.

Another aspect of the weather was that there was supposed to be wind out of the south. It should have been protected in the cove but how was it beyond the Dog Bar?

Wind never was a factor except it provided nice cooling. I would guess it was under 10 mph in the open - probably more like 5. Actually, I did not see the higher wind predictions that some mentioned before the trip. I think I saw 12 mph maximum although it was much higher for the offshore marine reports.

Al

Thanks Al. Cathy and I are still getting used to this "weather prediction" stuff and didn't know what to make of the higher winds just off the Dog Bar and the lower winds on shore. Our thought was that the winds out of the south would produce some swells in the exposed section of the trip and would make quick storm aversion difficult if necessary. I think that we might need to rely on those that know a little more until we fully get the hang of it. Glad you guys had such a great trip.

Hi Rob,

It's not that we had special knowledge that allows us to be extraordinary seers of the weather. Indeed we were constantly aware that the relatively calm winds (which incidentally shifted to the east, so we didn't get a free ride home!) could kick up to perhaps even exceed the 10mph forecast, and were prepared for that in our planned return.

Situational awareness counts for a lot.