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Sat, Dec 20 - New Launch Time 10:00 a.m.


cathyfoley

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Saturday, Dec. 20

Launch Time: 10:00 a.m.

Return to Launch Site NLT: 2:00 p.m.

Paddle from Pierce Island on outgoing tide (high is 5:11 a.m. - low tide 11:25 a.m.) out to Little Harbor Breakwater and then venture out along the coast for rock gardening. Play in the vicinity of Ordione State Park shoreline for a while and then catch the incoming tide sometime around 12:30 back to Pierce Island. Off the water sometime between 1:30 and 2:00 at the latest.

participants should have a drysuit or full 5mm-7mm wetsuit. (No farmer johns) Bring appropriate safety gear, hot beverage, snack and change of dry, warm clothes.

Small Craft Warnings may prevent going onto the ocean, in which case the route will change and go up Sagamore Creek. This is an all-weather paddle.

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Saturday, Dec. 20

Launch Time: 9:00 a.m.

Return to Launch Site NLT: 2:00 p.m.

Paddle from Pierce Island on outgoing tide (high is 5:11 a.m. - low tide 11:25 a.m.) out to Little Harbor Breakwater and then venture out along the coast for rock gardening. Play in the vicinity of Ordione State Park shoreline for a while and then catch the incoming tide sometime around 12:30 back to Pierce Island. Off the water sometime between 1:30 and 2:00 at the latest.

participants should have a drysuit or full 5mm-7mm wetsuit. (No farmer johns) Bring appropriate safety gear, hot beverage, snack and change of dry, warm clothes.

Small Craft Warnings may prevent going onto the ocean, in which case the route will change and go up Sagamore Creek. This is an all-weather paddle.

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Could do 10:00 but still need to be off the water by 2:00 as we there is a Christmas party Sat night I'm attending.

Could move this to Sunday if there is interest

I'm interested, depending on how weather plays out. Don't want to fight a lot of wind. 10:00am Sat. is my preference-- can't do Sunday.

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I'm interested, depending on how weather plays out. Don't want to fight a lot of wind. 10:00am Sat. is my preference-- can't do Sunday.

Hey folks! Ross here. Peter and I are planning on joining ya'all on Saturday. We don't have to be off the water so early so we may stay out a little longer. (perhaps till 3:30) I'll continue to check the status of the trip. Hopefully the weather holds. Looking forward Ross

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Peter and I are planning on joining ya'all on Saturday.

To forestall a potential discourse from Sir. Christopher concerning the mutilation of his language caused by the disappearance of the singular second person pronoun and the idioms created by ignorant folk, may I comment the contraction "y'all" is perfectly fine linguistically, but gently suggest the correct spelling is y'all. On the other hand, I am impressed you used it properly as many fail to do so.

Ed Lawson

Who needed a diversion from shoveling snow

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To forestall a potential discourse from Sir. Christopher concerning the mutilation of his language caused by the disappearance of the singular second person pronoun and the idioms created by ignorant folk, may I comment the contraction "y'all" is perfectly fine linguistically, but gently suggest the correct spelling is y'all. On the other hand, I am impressed you used it properly as many fail to do so.

Ed Lawson

Who needed a diversion from shoveling snow

Ed, well whatever "the disappearance of the singular second person pronoun" means, Peter and I are still planning on joining you'se guys on Saturday. The question that I prithie to thee, and thy blithe olde fere Sir Christopher of Gloucester, Hast thou also decided upon joining? Ross

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Hast thou also decided upon joining?

Don't think so. If the weather forecast is correct, I will still be moving snow by 10AM, let alone my departure time of 8:30AM.

Will be at pool session...I assume.

Ed Lawson

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here's the Marine forecast for tomorrow....There is currently a Small Craft Warning in Effect...if this continues, I still plan to paddle, but may not take it out into the open ocean. We can see who shows up and assess the conditions at the breakwater of Little Harbor.

ANZ154-191600-

CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-

858 PM EST THU DEC 18 2008

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING

OVERNIGHT

NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

FRI

N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE

AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY 1 TO

3 NM.

FRI NIGHT

NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SNOW...MAINLY

IN THE EVENING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

SAT

NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO

10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO

7 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.

SAT NIGHT

NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT

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here's the Marine forecast for tomorrow....There is currently a Small Craft Warning in Effect... CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-

858 PM EST THU DEC 18 2008

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING

SAT

NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO

10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO

7 FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.

Out of curiosity, I'm wondering how much stock to put in the above (?NOAA) forecast for such a wide region, which covers out to 25NM, vs the local forecast for Portsmouth, which calls for winds 8-12?

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...eekday=Saturday

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How much stock do we put in any forecast? Personally, I take any information I can get and put it all together in my head, then while standing on the beach observing actual conditions, make the call for the days activities. There have been many wonderful days of paddling that would have been missed had I just went by the forecast. Of course, other times, you end up just having lunch and an adult beverage at the local pub. :)

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Out of curiosity, I'm wondering how much stock to put in the above (?NOAA) forecast for such a wide region, which covers out to 25NM, vs the local forecast for Portsmouth, which calls for winds 8-12?

John Huth is the person to answer this. My $.02 is that you need to look at not only the velocity of the winds and the nature of the predicted seas, but also the direction of the winds forecast and over the prior 48 hours. Seas close in are seldom if ever as large as those further out and the winds are less further in as well. To illustrate this, check out the marine forecast zones for downeast Maine. The differences between the coastal forecast and the intracoastal forecast provide a few clues on interpreting the Portsmouth area marine forecast. Note the difference between a small craft advisory and a gale warning which is huge.

Assuming you are going to be within 100M of shore, the land forecast is far more relevant for winds. That said, note that if things change by a few hours Sat. even the land winds are stiff and would be noticeably higher over even a modest fetch in any event.

Also keep in mind paddlers have a tendency to overestimate wind and waves so they underestimate the conditions based on relevant forecast and overestimate ability to paddle in the forecast conditions. For example, it is often said 16K winds are the realm of BCU 4* paddlers, but most folks tend to think such winds are modest.

For a real world example, earlier this year there was a paddle from Portsmouth (which I did not attend) during which conditions apparently were sufficient to cause some distress and the experience based on resulting trip report thread. The forecast conditions were not all that much, but the wind had been higher and out of the NE for a few days as I recall so I assume the seas coming on shore were more than group anticipated based prior experience with similar forecasted winds/seas on typical summer day.

My guess is the seas might be up a bit, but otherwise Sat. would be an OK day. Well, it will be cold.

Here is the most recent downeast forecast :

ANZ050-192000-

COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-

322 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...BECOMING N THIS

AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SNOW. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO

5 FT... BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LIKELY. VSBY 1

TO 3 NM.

.SAT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO

6 FT. A CHANCE OF SNOW. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NE 10 TO 15 KT AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SNOW. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT... INCREASING

TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT... BUILDING TO

5 TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LIKELY. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 40 TO 45 KT...BECOMING SW 30 TO 40 KT AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT...BUILDING TO 11 TO 16 FT AFTER

MIDNIGHT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER

MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

ANZ051-192000-

COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-

322 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...BECOMING N EARLY

THIS AFTERNOON... THEN BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SNOW...THEN SNOW LIKELY LATE. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8

FT. SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SAT...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO

8 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SNOW.

VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF

SNOW. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SUN...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT... INCREASING

TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT... BUILDING TO

6 TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN

RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 40 TO 45 KT...BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS 10 TO 14 FT...BUILDING TO 12 TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN

IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO

3 NM.

ANZ052-192000-

INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-

322 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...BECOMING N THIS

AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF

SNOW. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM LATE.

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO

5 FT. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SAT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO

3 FT...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SNOW

IN THE MORNING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS

2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUN...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...BECOMING E

30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SNOW LIKELY IN THE

MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 40 TO 45 KT...BECOMING W 30 TO 35 KT AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING... THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW

AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

Ed Lawson

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the local forecast for Portsmouth, which calls for winds 8-12?

www.wunderground.com

Just to add another bit of minutae, when checking local conditions using wunderground.com it is important to note where the source of the data originates. It might be from a PWS Personal Weather Station which could be relatively protected. For example this afternoon the data from the Portsmouth PWS shows it is calm while the data from the airport shows 8MPH. It is not unusual for the PWS there to report very modest winds when it is blowing hard at Odiorne while the airport data is often close to what you find while paddling if the wind is offshore.

To show the fickleness of it all, you will often see winds on Isle of Shoals blowing in a quite different direction from those at the Western Maine buoy off York although they are not that far apart and both of the coast by a few miles.

Ed Lawson

Who has John Huth to thank for this obsessive behavior regarding weather

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Bingo!

Ed Lawson

Anyone up for x-country skiing instead? I will continue to check the posts for the go ahead. I am still interested in heading out of course only we there are more than two of us. I'll ready my kayaking gear but I will also be bringing out my skis in case the sea conditions are not safe. I am concerned, of course, about the cold wind even in the protected areas. My number is 914-489-2673 if we want to do a phone chain tomorrow morning for any last minute decisions. Ross Ed thanks for the informative info. it is quite useful.

Its looking pretty white out there.

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you guys can have all the discussion you want about the weather....like Bill I look at many reports.....bottom line....if at the breakwater at Little Harbor...I don't feel comfortable going out....I'm not going...but won't stop anyone who decides they want to. I'll be at the launch and ready to paddle at 10:00.

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you guys can have all the discussion you want about the weather....like Bill I look at many reports.....bottom line....if at the breakwater at Little Harbor...I don't feel comfortable going out....I'm not going...but won't stop anyone who decides they want to. I'll be at the launch and ready to paddle at 10:00.

I spoke with Peter, he and I will meet you there at 10:00. Ross

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Sooooo...

everyone getting themselves dug out?

Local wx: Balmy 10 deg, light snow steadily falling and the tops of the highest trees aren't moving... much.

Are folks still up for meeting at Pierce Isl to assess?

I'm heading out to dig/warm up and will check in about 0815 or so.

I was going to call you Ross but Laura said it might be a little early.

Jon

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Sooooo...

everyone getting themselves dug out?

Local wx: Balmy 10 deg, light snow steadily falling and the tops of the highest trees aren't moving... much.

Are folks still up for meeting at Pierce Isl to assess?

I'm heading out to dig/warm up and will check in about 0815 or so.

I was going to call you Ross but Laura said it might be a little early.

Jon

I'm dug out...mostly and since Peirce is in my backyard I plan to head over and decide then. Parking may be an issue if they have'nt plowed the area yet. I'll be there 9:30-45

Gerry

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I'm dug out...mostly and since Peirce is in my backyard I plan to head over and decide then. Parking may be an issue if they have'nt plowed the area yet. I'll be there 9:30-45

Gerry

Parking and also wind chill hovering near zero give call though. Ross

(just of the phone with Gerry and the trip has been cancelled due to Arctic like sub zero winds)

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(just of the phone with Gerry and the trip has been cancelled due to Arctic like sub zero winds)

Even if cancelled, all of you are animals for even thinking about it this morning.

There is always next weekend.

Ed Lawson

Watching it snow and feeding woodstove often

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