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Jim Snyder

October, Ogunquit, again

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 "Please please someone schedule this route again next season.  I'd love to do it.-Ken"

Watching conditions and hoping to make this trip an annual event. The weekend of the 17th or 24th are possibilities. Here's last year's planning thread:

And here's the trip report:

If you're interested in this trip, please weigh in here and follow for updates. I think we should limit the number of paddlers to eight. Also please indicate if weekdays are possible for you.

Edited by Jim Snyder
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Am interested, but have a more difficult schedule than most, so please don't try to plan around me. Would love to come if it works out.

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Sounds great. Weekdays would be best, as I tend to work on weekdays, and would rather go play instead. Weekends good too. 

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9 hours ago, Jim Salem said:

I have a "spring weight" 2mm wet suit. Do you think that will be sufficient?

Water temperature is likely to be between 50 and 55 degrees. While everyone is different in their cold tolerance, I would want more protection than that. I have a spare semi-dry suit size large.

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16 minutes ago, Joseph Berkovitz said:

10:17 is the rescheduled Boston Harbor geology trip (thanks to today’s wind) so any other day would be best. 

I know we're still pretty far out but the "Windy" forecast for the 17th is 12' medium period swell and 15kt wind. Incidentally the same forecast has Boston Harbor at 4' and 20kt. We'll see what happens.

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Jim - That is only the ECMWF forecast. The GFS forecast shows a pretty nice day. Windy does not produce just one single forecast - it gives you access to multiple forecast models. This is great because it lets you compare models and know when they agree and when they don't. For GFS predictions see:

https://www.windy.com/42.345/-70.864?gfs,2020-10-17-09,42.529,-63.203,4,i:pressure,m:ePXaec8

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On 10/10/2020 at 9:37 AM, Joseph Berkovitz said:

That is only the ECMWF forecast. The GFS forecast shows a pretty nice day.

I just checked and they're still wildly different. I wonder if they will converge as we get closer. Do you find the GFS more accurate for waves? MSW is out to the 17th now and looks pretty good. I have a conflict on the 18th so it looks like I will plan this trip somewhere between the 19th and 25th. 

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Unless the forecasts are based on small or unstable features, ECMWF and NAM/GFS usually converge on weather 2-3 days ahead. Often the timing and intensity will remain a bit different between them though, and of course they can either/both be wrong even concerning the present moment!

It’s worth looking at why they disagree, when they do, because it tells us something about the degree of uncertainty. Windy makes that easy to do. In this case ECMWF thinks a huge low pressure storm system will form off VA coast on Friday and zoom up our way on Saturday. GFS doesn’t predict any system at all for the same period. So it’s not just that they disagree in wind intensity: they disagree about whether a huge weather system will even exist. The NOAA Forecast Discussion mentions this discrepancy and then says, “Have low confidence in the details after Friday due to significant differences [between the models] in the mid level flow.” And that’s what Windy can’t give you but NOAA can: expert human judgment. 

Windy offers access to two wave models, WAM (based off of ECMWF) and Wavewatch3 (off of GFS, and it seems slightly more accurate to me).  I use these for open water forecasts only, since for surf conditions on a real beach Magic seaweed is best.  MSW tweaks those models with their own expertise. 

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Update:

Based on forecasts I will not be scheduling this trip before Tuesday the 20th at the earliest. Those who have expressed interest include:

  • Bill Harter
  • Joe Berkovitz
  • Jim Salem
  • Mike Habich
  • Janet Lorang
  • Prudence Baxter
  • David Mercer
  • Andy Shoeck
  • Jane Cobb

I will watch the forecast and update next week.

 

Edited by Jim Snyder
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3 hours ago, Inverseyourself said:

Tuesday is only for the retirement community ☹️😂

???

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😂

Jim, my working class brain just realized that you referred to  s c h e d u l i n g   the trip on or after Tuesday 20th. Didn’t mean to offend the NSPN-retirement community.

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Tuesday the 20th is a possibility. I'm hoping for light winds and 1 to 2' swell for rocks. Tuesday forecast is a little sportier then it gets windier. I will update on Sunday. 

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I'll miss this.  Think I'll go play in the street current Monday, and won't be worth much Tuesday (as if I ever was anyway).

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