Sea kayaker numbers

[josko]

Down in my area (Cape Cod and 'the Islands'), I'm seeing a large decline in numbers of sea kayakers on the water over the last decade.  I used to see groups paddling up and down the Elizabeths almost every weekend; there were groups 'playing' in the hole with equal frequency. This summer I don't think I've seen a single group, and the trend (over the past few years) is absolutely noticable.

What gives? Are numbers of sea kayak paddlers really in decline, or is it somethig specific about this area? I think I'm seeing the same trend on MITA campsites in Maine, too, and the AMC (Boston) interest in paddling is dwindling.

Edited September 15, 2016 by josko

[mattdrayer]

I honestly think the SUP movement has had a lot to do with it -- entry-level price points are approximately the same and it's a very social + accessible activity with low gear/equipment/skill requirements for just tooling around the harbor or fooling around at the beach.  It's a great cross training exercise for many other sports as well, including kayaking.

Edited September 15, 2016 by mattdrayer

[Brian Nystrom]

1 hour ago, mattdrayer said:

I honestly think the SUP movement has had a lot to do with it -- entry-level price points are approximately the same and it's a very social + accessible activity with low gear/equipment/skill requirements for just tooling around the harbor or fooling around at the beach.  It's a great cross training exercise for many other sports as well, including kayaking.

I suspect that's true (people following the latest fad) and also that many paddler who were very active during the "kayak boom" years have either lost interest, changed their preferred activities or aged out of the sport. I also noticed a few years back that many experienced paddlers were dropping out of clubs and doing their own thing. With less participation and leadership, organized group trips are bound to dwindle.

[mattdrayer]

We're wrestling with these issues as well in our own tiny Tuesday night surfski race series -- participation has dropped off somewhat over the past two seasons.  People have moved away, shifted to other activities, or just don't have time.  We'd love to see 6-8 new faces sign up for next year's league and think that is possible if we can generate more awareness.  For my part, I've recently become an organizer for the Boston Paddling Meetup Group and have begun posting all sorts of events (races, classes, tours, etc.).  My goal is to double the group membership to 1000+ by packing the 2017 calendar full of things to do, and hopefully by doing that a half-dozen members will decide to hang out with us for a couple races 

[gyork]

7 hours ago, josko said:

Are numbers of sea kayak paddlers really in decline, or is it somethig specific about this area? I think I'm seeing the same trend on MITA campsites in Maine, too,..........

Josko- I would agree that the numbers are likely dropping, at least in coastal Maine, based on personal observations over the past few years.  Striking was the paucity of kayakers at the last 2 trips to Stonington, sea kayaking mecca, in the middle of July.  Most of the MITA sites, including the most popular, were barren. On my solo and group paddles lately, kayakers seem so scarce that I make every effort to chat up anyone I meet in a sea kayak.  The wave of popularity for any sport/activity has two sides, and it appears we are kayaking downhill.  Other activities such as mountain climbing (meetups), seem to be solidly booked, with a not-short waitlist.  

[mattdrayer]

2 hours ago, gyork said:

Other activities such as mountain climbing (meetups), seem to be solidly booked, with a not-short waitlist.  

I can verify that interest in climbing has exploded over the past several years -- the local gyms are packed, especially with younger kids.  In addition I teach ice climbing for the Boston AMC and online  applications for our annual program have been so high the past couple of years we've had to wait list some amazingly qualified students due to space constraints and available leaders.

It's again a case of low entry cost, high social context, and easy accessibility -- both in terms of locations and skills development -- combined with an enormous amount of marketing effort by the outdoor industry.  

As a new rock climber you need a helmet, harness, shoes, a couple pieces of gear.  Maybe $200.  For bouldering you need shoes and that's it.  $50.  And hundreds of people to meet everywhere you go.  Compare that to kayaking where you need a boat, paddle, and pfd at absolute minimum, say $700, and very few people to meet, as amazing as the people are, and it makes sense.

I used to be a huge fan of SCUBA diving 15 years ago but stopped for several reasons -- at the time the activity was booming but I haven't kept up with it -- I wonder if there is a similar issue with participation there, because it seems to present the same characteristics as kayaking in terms of gear, accessibility, social, etc.

 

 

[mattdrayer]

I also wonder if whitewater/wildwater has experienced a similar change -- at least for wildwater there was some Olympic coverage this year.

[Daniel Carr]

From my vantage point, the drop in whitewater paddling preceded the decline in sea kayaking.  The number of companies manufacturing whitewater boats dropped over the last decade.  Probably true to some degree for many outdoor pursuits.  Digital world.

 

[SeaKayakNE]

As a sea kayaker under 30 (24) to be exact there are fewer of us.  I had this conversation recently with John Carmody.  I believe we have to find some way to get more young people involved in the sport.  My wife and I have been lucky to have some great instructors/coaches that have Been willing to share their vast knowledge with us.  We are currently trying to figure ways to get more people in our age group involved. 

[Paul Sylvester]

A couple years ago at the skippers meeting for the Blackburn race the announcer asked for a show of hands for age groups. 20-30/ 30-40 etc.

  The majority were 50-60-70 years old.

[Brian Nystrom]

That's not surprising considering that during the boom years of the late '90's to early 2000's, the majority of sea kayakers were middle-aged. There were a reasonable number in their 30's, but I don't recall many 20-somethings.

[mattdrayer]

The results for yesterday's L2L surfski class are broken down by age group.  This is obviously constrained to people who not only specifically paddle surfskis, but also compete with them.  Still, the numbers look like:  Under 40 (12), 40-49 (12), 50-59 (23), 60+ (6).  The good news is that 3/5 of the Top 5 were Under 40, and 4/10 of the Top 10.

As far as getting new/more people involved, it's really a funnel of interest > discovery > trial > conversion > development.  The way I see it, there are plenty of people interested in paddling, but they need to discover opportunities to learn more about padling.  Once they've discovered an opportunity, a prospective kayaker can actually try it out.  Maybe it's a pool session, maybe it's a demo day, etc.  Assuming the trial goes well, our awesome organizations and outfitters in the area jump into the flow and help to convert them (ie, get a boat!) and develop their abilities.  

After reflecting on the above, I've come to my own conclusion that discovery in the Boston area is our biggest problem.  Google can help, sure, but after reviewing a bunch of websites and looking at a dozen event calendars and forums and all, opportunities are highly fragmented, sites all work differently, etc.  So I'm focusing my efforts on developing a place to aggregate all of that info.  Events from clubs, guides, races, festivals, etc. I'm using an existing Meetup.com group that already has 500+ Boston-area paddlers ("interested").  Meetup is nice because there's a very low commitment cost for members (free, minimal info to provide, etc.) and the event scheduling and notification mechanism is fairly decent.  Assuming I see some results (+membership, +participation) I'll keep going on this track.

Matt

 

[Katherine]

Hi Matt, it seems like a great idea.  Have you gotten the club's buy-in/approval?

[Daniel Carr]

The Maine Island Trail Association established a Meetup site last year and now has about 275 members.  Activity on the site has really spiked and I believe a larger number of the members are younger although those stats are not tracked.  It has been a great way for MITA members to link up for some paddling fun.  Check out the site http://www.meetup.com/mitameetup/

[mattdrayer]

3 hours ago, Katherine said:

Hi Matt, it seems like a great idea.  Have you gotten the club's buy-in/approval?

Hi Katherine -- by club do you mean NSPN?  I guess I have not -- I figured that since the information is publicly-available, and that the Meetup event descriptions simply point back to the original location, that I'm doing nothing more than what Google is already doing but targeting a more specific audience.  If there's a formal review/approval process that needs go through that can certainly happen.  What would be better, imho, is if someone from NSPN could officially represent the club on the Meetup group and post the events, answer questions, etc.  Three local shops/guides have already joined to post/manage their events, and I'm waiting to hear back from several more.  I'm already finding that building momentum for the Meetup group itself is taking up most of the time I have for the project.

[josko]

Is this (demise of kayaking numbers) anything that we, as paddlers should be concerned about?  I can't decide if I'd be having a better time with  a, say, threefold increase of paddlers in my home waters.  For a while I took it as granted that we'd all be better off if paddler numbers went up, but I don't understand why, now that I think of it. It's certainly nice to not have to worry if a MITA campsite will be occupied before our own party can  get to it.

Should we be doing anything to increase paddle rnumbers?

Edited September 19, 2016 by josko

[mattdrayer]

Very interesting point to consider, @josko.  I feel like there must be some sort of equilibrium-based game theory to reference here   When I think about it from my ultra-small-world vantage point, I want more people to paddle generally, because I want more people to paddle surfskis, because I want more people to race surfskis, because I want to continue racing surfskis.  In addition, because I am lazy and want to avoid a long commute in order to race, I specifically want the Tuesday Night North Shore Series to continue for as long as I am able to participate.  At present I feel the probability of the series enduring for longer than my ability to participate is low enough that I am willing to spend time+energy to improve the odds.

From a sheer competition perspective, however, I should want exactly the opposite.  I should want as few people involved in racing as possible to maximize my chances of winning -- ideally myself and only one other person who is less fit than me, but still willing to show up at every race that I attend.  Even better, that person could become less and less fit over the course of the season, so I could spend less time+energy in order to win.

I think the big question is "me" versus "we".  From the competitive "me" perspective, it's great to win the race, find a great campsite, essentially be the first to accomplish a goal.  But from the collaborative "we" perspective, new benefits come into the picture.  MITA wouldn't exist without "we", Tuesday Night races wouldn't exist without "we", NSPN wouldn't exist without "we", and so on.  In addition, for an organization like NSPN, where membership is a key driver of sustainability, I would think a key part of every year's plan is to grow the number of members, at least to the point at which sustainability has been reached and all members are satisfied with the benefits they are receiving.  Beyond that point you could argue a not-for-profit has no reason to expand further.

I read some great articles over the weekend about windsurfing, which is frequently-cited as one of those "has-been" activities that people did years ago but no one does today (saw someone flying on an RS:X @ Nahant on Saturday, btw...but only one...).  Very similar discussions to what's being said here, but many were ca. 2005-2008.  I also found the following articles on youth participation in sports interesting:

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2015/08/10/In-Depth/Lead.aspx

http://www.forbes.com/sites/blakewilliams3012/2016/06/15/youth-sports-participation-continues-to-decline-and-congress-may-have-a-solution/#683857c677c8

[PeterB]

Is this (demise of kayaking numbers) anything that we, as paddlers should be concerned about?  I can't decide if I'd be having a better time with  a, say, threefold increase of paddlers in my home waters.  For a while I took it as granted that we'd all be better off if paddler numbers went up, but I don't understand why, now that I think of it. It's certainly nice to not have to worry if a MITA campsite will be occupied before our own party can  get to it.

Should we be doing anything to increase paddle rnumbers?

This is a very interesting point or issue , one I think about  about a lot in exactly the same thought process expressed here , with  no clear conclusions .  

[josko]

3 hours ago, mattdrayer said:

I read some great articles over the weekend about windsurfing, which is frequently-cited as one of those "has-been" activities that people did years ago but no one does today (saw someone flying on an RS:X @ Nahant on Saturday, btw...but only one...).  Very similar discussions to what's being said here, but many were ca. 2005-2008.

I was involved in the windsurfer 'boom' from a team rider perspective: for a while, we had a HUGE amount of cash from gear sponsors running races, demo events, paying for mag. articles, flying people all over, and this 'in your face' approach sold a lot of gear, as we evolved from 12' Windsurfers, to slalom, distance, big wave ('guns'), small wave and a plethora of other boards and sail quivers exceeding a dozen for 'serious' players.  Then one day, some marketing dude decided they'd saturated sales, and all the corporate marketing money got pulled virtually instantaneously. Wiundsurfing died.  I bet there are still garages with a half-dozen boards and a dozen sails all over the cape (mine included). The marketing machine moved on.

I saw this again with fly fishing gear around the tech boom. Again, 'the marketing machine' somehow convinced hordes of yuppies that flyfishing was a culturally most advanced form of fishing, and for a mere outlay of $3-$5k, they could show up and look down on all other fishermen. There were innumerable magazine articles about flyfishing places like Seychelles, and of course, one had to have a different ($500+) rod, for stripers, bluefish, albies, bonito, bonefish, tuna, sharks etc, etc.  Then $1k reels, waders, racks, flies, travel...They sold a ton of that stuff, and then, just as abruptly, the marketing plug got pulled. Yuppie flyfishing died.

I kind of wonder if same is happening now with SUP's, although I'm not involved first hand. I suppose it's capitalism in action, and as such, supposedly good.

On the other hand, I know quite a few folks who still stick to windsurfing, and they are having a blast, with none of the access and similar issues that accompanied the boom.

Would anybody comment on what drove the sea kayaking 'boom'?

Edited September 19, 2016 by josko

[mattdrayer]

3 hours ago, josko said:

Would anybody comment on what drove the sea kayaking 'boom'?

I can't really put my finger on a specific driver, but I can remember a cool dot-com-era marketing campaign for the Nissan Xterra: 

...and reading about epic sea kayaking journeys on flash-in-the-pan extreme sports websites like "Quokka", reading the Tsunami Rangers' books about adventures on the West Coast, etc.  Heck, I've kept a digital copy of a 2004 Outside article about the Blackburn Challenge in my Dropbox account for years because I love it  Was there a driver pushing me toward sea kayaking?  Most likely, yes, but nothing I can think of other than the overall "extreme" marketing machine.  (Yeah, I definitely took that bait, and it still tastes good today, too)

Actually, now that I think about it, Sesame Street may honestly have had something to do with it -- I still vividly remember this little vignette (TYVM, YouTube!):   

 

Matt  

 

[mattdrayer]

4 hours ago, josko said:

I kind of wonder if same is happening now with SUP's

Companies are already finding ways to get people to buy multiple SUP boards (surfing, racing, yoga, expedition, flatwater, inflatable!) along with various paddles, leashes, PFDs, you name it.  Already seeing it, too, with surfskis and that activity has hardly gotten off the beach.  Epic offers 10 skis alone, and several people I know have a V8 for rough water, a V10 for normal conditions or ocean racing, and a V12 or even a V14 for calm conditions or flatwater racing.  I'm also starting to see doubles racing picking up, so that's another boat in the quiver, as well.  I've always said show me a hobby where you can't drop at least $1000 on a setup (more like $3-5k these days) and I'll show you a business opportunity.

Matt

[John Martinsen]

No one's mentioned the rec boats popping up everywhere for short money, which has now become the norm for kayaks, or the fleets of sit on tops decked out for fishing. Sea kayaks have become some "extreme" piece of gear that many people are afraid of, or pick up used for cheap on Craigslist. Easier to sell 100 short crappy boats than have a high dollar item take up a ton of space in your showroom forever.

I think comparing sups to kayaks is like apples to oranges. For most people a sup is a fun beach accessory, only a few hardcore folks are going to have a quiver of them stashed away somewhere. The majority of sups are probably sold to vacationers picking one up to play around with while at the beach.

Makes one wonder if more of a "club" venue, with a physical location and access to boats, gear, and informal coaching, would get more people out on the water long term to become dedicated water people.

 

 

[josko]

On ‎9‎/‎20‎/‎2016 at 9:24 AM, John Martinsen said:

"Makes one wonder if more of a "club" venue, with a physical location and access to boats, gear, and informal coaching, would get more people out on the water long term to become dedicated water people".

I was pretty involved with the AMC 'till it dawned on me that I was leading the same dozen people over and over again. AMC seems quite willing to invest in developing a sea kayaking program, but nobody seems to know what concretely to do and propose to them.  AMC already has a kayak barn (Lincoln, I think), and the club could, in principle store boats there and somehow loan/rent them to prospective paddlers.  AMC SK Boston chaprter pondered this but nothing actually happened.

So, what concretely could a club do to increase an interest in sea kayaking, and why?

 

 

Edited September 22, 2016 by josko

[mattdrayer]

6 hours ago, josko said:

So, what concretely could a club do to increase an interest in sea kayaking, and why?

Each member joins a club for their own reasons, but most fundamental is the desire to attain one or more benefits that might not be otherwise available to that member in an individual context, whether due to the individual's financial status or another factor.  Thus, a club's mission is to provide benefits via an optimized cost ratio for its members.

So, 'Why increase interest?' is the $64K question.  Is the club experiencing a decrease in revenue?  Have costs increased?  Either of these situations impacts the club's ability to fund benefits for its club members.  A club faced with a benefit-funding gap has several strategies to consider:  1) decrease the quantity of benefits, 2) decrease the quality of benefits, 3) increase the cost of membership, 4) increase total memberships, 5) fundraising.  If the benefit-funding gap is not addressed in some way, the club will begin to experience a death-spiral of declining membership due to dissatisfaction with the quantity and/or quality of benefits being provided to club members.

But maybe everything is just fine with the club's finances, and members are completely happy with the benefits they are receiving.  In this scenario there's no reason to increase interest from the club's perspective, because club members have everything they want for the price they're willing to pay.  But this is an idealistic scenario, because everyone has an opinion.  Some people want more/better benefits, some people (maybe the same people) want existing benefits to cost less, and some people are good with the status quo.  

So the club is forced to revisit benefits and costs at every fiscal cycle, and select from the solutions mentioned above (plus others I'm sure).  At one of those cycles the club may determine that "increase total memberships" is the best strategy.  That's when "increase interest" would be considered as a tactic to "increase total memberships", and things unfold from there.

Does NSPN need to increase interest in sea kayaking?

Matt

 

 

Edited September 22, 2016 by mattdrayer

[rfolster]

Matt, I must wholeheartedly disagree, but this is only my opinion.  I think that the most fundamental reason for people to join clubs is to find other people to paddle with, and the benefits are secondary. 

As far as NSPN is concerned, I don't think we are concentrating on creating an interest in sea kayaking, but instead trying to provide education and a sense of community to those who are already interested.